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Electorate margins

The tables below show the percentage point swing to the the winning party in each seat in the 2010 State election. It also shows the percentage point swing required for each district to change hands at the State election in 2014. The table is based on the two party preferred vote (i.e. Liberal/National vs ALP), and is ranked from safest seat to least safe. Cases where the swing is calculated on another basis are noted.

LIBERAL: 35 seats

Electoral district	Swing to Liberal in 2010	Swing required to change district in 2014
Malvern	9.12%	20.45% to ALP
Doncaster	9.49%	17.62% to ALP
Brighton	6.63%	17.57% to ALP
Hawthorn	4.48%	16.75% to ALP
Benambra	8.77%	16.49% to ALP
Mornington	4.18%	16.04% to ALP
Sandringham	7.25%	15.94% to ALP
Kew	5.63%	15.2% to ALP
Bulleen	6.25%	14.69% to ALP
Nepean	4.93%	14.32% to ALP
Scoresby	2.97%	14.15% to ALP
Warrandyte	4.88%	13.88% to ALP
Box Hill	8.58%	13.81% to ALP
Evelyn	10.7%	13.49% to ALP
Polwarth	2.6%	13.3% to ALP
Bass	7.06%	12.59% to ALP
Narracan	9.74%	12.4% to ALP
Ferntree Gully	11.96%	12.01% to ALP
South-West Coast	7.89%	11.91% to ALP
Caulfield	3.9%	11.54% to ALP
Hastings	9.79%	10.79% to ALP
Bayswater	7.68%	10.58% to ALP
Kilsyth	10.05%	10.41% to ALP
Mount Waverley	7.76%	7.46% to ALP
Gembrook	7.46%	6.76% to ALP
Burwood	9.6%	5.87% to ALP
Prahran	7.83%	4.29% to ALP
South Barwon	6.22%	3.95% to ALP
Forest Hill	3.94%	3.18% to ALP
Mitcham	4.75%	2.78% to ALP
Frankston	5.29%	2.08% to ALP
Mordialloc	5.61%	2.08% to ALP
Carrum	8.75%	2.05% to ALP
Seymour	7.89%	1.24% to ALP
Bentleigh	7.07%	0.76% to ALP

NATIONAL: 10 seats

Electoral district	Swing to Nationals in 2010	Swing required to change district in 2014
Swan Hill	5.93%	29.34% to ALP
Rodney	1.35%	26.17% to ALP
Shepparton	1.32%	25.98% to ALP
Benalla	5.55%	23.07% to ALP
Gippsland South	6.78%	22.6% to ALP
Lowan	No change%	22.09% to ALP
Murray Valley	-2.72%	19.05% to ALP
Morwell	14.14%	16.27% to ALP
Gippsland East (1)	21.12%	12.02% to Ingram
Mildura (2)	3.11%	9.2% to Milne

(1) Gippsland East: Swing required calculated on National vs Ingram basis.
(2) Mildura: Swing required calculated on National vs Milne basis.

LABOR: 43 seats

Electoral district	Swing to ALP in 2010	Swing required to change district in 2014
Broadmeadows	-10.91%	20.99% to Liberal
Preston	-4.92%	20.39% to Liberal
Thomastown	-10.88%	20.2% to Liberal
Mill Park	-1.34%	19.46% to Liberal
Kororoit	-6.98%	18.59% to Liberal
Pascoe Vale	-4.98%	17.81% to Liberal
Footscray	-8.44%	16.24% to Liberal
Lara	-2.53%	15.41% to Liberal
Clayton	-4.96%	15.32% to Liberal
Yuroke	-4.9%	15.3% to Liberal
Derrimut	-9.95%	14.36% to Liberal
Lyndhurst	-7.57%	13.92% to Liberal
Dandenong	-4.8%	13.88% to Liberal
Melton	-0.76%	12.79% to Liberal
Altona	-8.25%	11.97% to Liberal
Williamstown	-12.43%	11.83% to Liberal
Tarneit	-1.34%	11.14% to Liberal
Northcote (1)	2.16%	10.69% to Greens
Keilor	-9.08%	10.34% to Liberal
Mulgrave	-7.29%	8.49% to Liberal
Bundoora	-7.56%	7.57% to Liberal
Niddrie	-4.27%	6.96% to Liberal
Narre Warren South	-4.2%	6.75% to Liberal
Richmond (2)	2.6%	6.25% to Greens
Melbourne (3)	4.16%	6.18% to Greens
Oakleigh	-7.66%	4.72% to Liberal
Yan Yean	-3.81%	4.11% to Liberal
Bendigo East	-1.57%	3.83% to Liberal
Brunswick (4)	-0.37%	3.27% to Greens
Narre Warren North	-6.26%	2.98% to Liberal
Bendigo West	-7.63%	2.94% to Liberal
Ripon	-1.64%	2.72% to Liberal
Essendon	-9.28%	2.43% to Liberal
Geelong	-6.19%	2.15% to Liberal
Albert Park	-7.65%	2.05% to Liberal
Monbulk	-4.8%	1.89% to Liberal
Cranbourne	-9.44%	1.86% to Liberal
Ivanhoe	-8.78%	1.68% to Liberal
Ballarat East	-5.13%	1.52% to Liberal
Bellarine	-6.58%	1.38% to Liberal
Macedon	-6.91%	1.27% to Liberal
Ballarat West	-5.49%	1.06% to Liberal
Eltham	-5.66%	0.83% to Liberal

(1) Northcote: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis.
(2) Richmond: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis.
(3) Melbourne: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis.
(4) Brunswick: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis.